It’s easy to assume the combat videos we see flowing in are the main UAF offensive the Russians have been bracing for, yet, it’s missing some key elements.
Despite not using the full brunt of their newly created armour brigades, UAF troops have recaptured seven villages from Russian forces along a 100 km front in the southeast. However, this could all be a ruse. We have seen the UAF use incredibly clever diversionary tactics before.
Yes, Russians are retreating; yes, they are being shot by their own comrades for abandoning their positions, but things are going to get far worse for Russia before they get better.
The Ukrainians have been building heavy assault battalions over the last six months. However, we haven't seen these formations on the front. It’s true UAF forces are using armour and light vehicles against dug-in positions, but these seem to be merely probing operations–albeit successful ones.
In the fall of last year, we saw UAF thunder runs used to capture large swaths of land. However, this year is looking to be different. This summer, they have the ability—due to depleted RU artillery and Western hardware—to try other tactics.
Newly acquired weapons from the West allow the UAF to push with overwhelming firepower and force multipliers. These weapons include:
Long Range Artillery
AA Systems
Main Battle Tanks
IFVs
Light Vehicles
Guided Bombs
Fighter Jets
And much more
We see the UAF using light vehicles with tanks, but many of these other systems are kept in the back pocket. Essentially we are witnessing very well-supported probing missions that are achieving breakthroughs. This is undoubtedly due to the fantastic coordination between light elements, drones, and infantry.
Yet all this considered, an elephant is looming over the battlefield. Ukraine is more than likely preparing for a massive armoured assault in a region none of us are looking at. When we see the heavies come in, we’ll know it.
A standard Ukrainian tank battalion typically consists of 31 tanks, and an armoured infantry battalion would have a similar number. Additionally, there are armoured vehicles carrying engineers, air defence units, logistics personnel, and others. An armoured brigade typically comprises of three tank battalions and one or two mechanized infantry battalions, amounting to over 250 armoured vehicles of different types.
The Ukrainians seem to have assembled approximately seven to twelve armoured brigades, some equipped solely with Ukrainian or captured Russian equipment, while others possess a mix of Western-provided gear.
Once we witness two or three of these brigades, totalling around 500-750 armoured vehicles, focusing on a narrow front, we can reasonably infer that the main attack is likely underway and pinpoint its location.
However, those of us who recognize this early will not shout our findings from the rooftops. Many analysts like myself want to see invaders thrown from the Ukrainian borders. Therefore, many of us will be silent during the first days of this offensive.
Suffice to say Ukraine is gaining capabilities, morale, and initiative. In contrast, Russia is hemorrhaging power and control.
The UAF has been using artillery-fired anti-tank mines to booby-trap Russian supply/escape routes. They’ve been hitting barracks with precision artillery. Furthermore, UAF Fighter Pilots are training in many Western nations, while the new freshly trained infantry is overwhelming Russian positions on the front.
This war is a disaster for Russia. I feel it won’t be long before more than just small brigades of forces and Wagner decide to strike at the hand that threw them into the grinder.
Defence Minister Shoigu has already decreed the assimilation of all mercenary groups into the Russian armed forces, which is obviously out of fear. Fear of these groups assaulting the corrupt chain of command that is Russia today, and unfortunately, has been for at least a 150 years.
In the coming months, we will see walls of UAF armour followed closely by highly trained and determined infantry. Thousands of Russians will die in this onslaught. Many will run, and hopefully, something catastrophic happens in Russian command that allows all these misinformed Russians to return to their farms, homes and families.
However, the UAF doesn’t care anymore. They will kill them all the same. They are done waiting. They are through watching their lands corrode with the stink of war while their people drown in oligarch ambitions.
Over the past two weeks, we have seen HIMARS streak across the sky. The smoke trails and light shows coalescing on reserve stations and barracks. These levelled positions were strategic military targets. Targets that could come to the aid of Russian frontline forces amidst an attack. More evidence of an impending combined arms assault by multiple armoured brigades.
The UAF is wise not to carry out these attacks in an observable pattern either. On June 2nd, a Russian naval port was hit, and on the same day, a communication outpost in the northern oblasts was levelled. They are striking at positions RU leadership could congregate, but they are doing this across the whole front so the enemy never feels safe and has no idea where they intend to start the main offensive.
It’s possible the Ukrainians will never use the new brigades in ways the West designed them to be used in overwhelming combined arms tactics. Because despite popular belief, the Russian airforce is still capable of cluster bombing such a congregation. Yet, the fact of the matter is the UAF has organized many heavy armoured brigades into Western-style battle groups that they still have yet to use.
We must also remember that time is on the Ukrainians' side at the moment. The soon-to-arrive F-16s could provide long-range fighter protection for a major ground offensive–crucial to stopping Russian bombers. If they opened a large offensive now, the UAF would have to rely on Patriot and other Surfaced to Air systems. However, if they wait, they will be able to protect their heavy ground assets easier with air-to-air fighters, especially if they are provided meteors and other long-range radar-guided, air-air missiles.
That being said, both sides maintain terrifying anti-air equipment. Making any pilot's life in this war a living hell. It has been the main reason helicopter footage has dropped to nil. Even if the Ukrainians had the training to use the F16s, they would lose many trying to attack ground targets. Their primary role should be to defend ground forces by intercepting Russian ground attack craft. Whether the Russian air force is organized and capable enough to break up a Ukrainian ground offensive is up for debate, but the threat still looms.
With all this taken into consideration, many of us assume the UAF primary offensive can be expected very soon. Especially considering the success of these probing and diversionary attacks.
Entrenched Russian soldiers will soon be visited by armoured brigades the likes of which they’ve never seen. Challenger 2’s rifling extremely accurate fire, Bradleys air bursting shrapnel, and UAF infantry tossing grenades into any hole they deem fit. It is going to be a painful dose of reality for the invaders.
Time will tell how they react. However, at some point, many Russian soldiers will realize they have a better chance of fleeing than fighting.
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